Fire risk to US structures will nearly triple by 2060 if we do nothing

A University of Colorado Boulder study estimates that fire-related damage to U.S. buildings could nearly triple by 2060 if climate change continues to fuel fires and communities make no additional changes to development, vegetation management, building practices or preparedness. Researchers reconstructed structural fire risk from 1945 to 2023 using records of burned areas, development and fire impacts, then combined those findings with weather, climate and housing-density data to project risk through 2060. Under a business-as-usual scenario involving moderate climate mitigation but no new fire adaptations, as many as 449,100 buildings could be destroyed or damaged.

The projected burden differs by region: the West is expected to remain the center of structural losses, but the largest increase in risk is forecast for the central U.S., where fires are growing in grasslands and prairies. Eastern fires may be less frequent, yet can be as destructive as those in the West, while communities there are less prepared. The highest future risks are also likely to overlap with socioeconomic vulnerability. In the West, 30% of census tracts facing the greatest increase in risk already have poverty and disproportionate housing burdens. The researchers argue that building codes, including Colorado’s new wildfire-resiliency code, are not enough on their own. Effective action must address both future development and risks inherited by existing communities, with mitigation resources directed to places where residents have the least capacity to prepare and recover.