Warmest October on record with 2026 virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C

Copernicus climate monitoring data show that October 2026 was the warmest October on record, with global surface air temperatures 1.75°C above the estimated pre-industrial average. It was the third consecutive month above 1.5°C. Based on data through October and a statistical model, the full-year average is virtually certain - meaning a probability above 99% - to exceed 1.5°C, with a predicted range of 1.56-1.61°C. 2026 is likely to rank as the second-warmest year measured, behind 2024, and the four-year average for 2023-2026 is also expected to exceed 1.5°C. These comparisons describe temperature levels, not a permanent crossing of the Paris Agreement threshold.

Ocean warmth reinforced the global record: sea surface temperatures outside the polar regions reached an October high of 20.95°C. An intensifying El Niño drove the Niño 3.4 region to a record anomaly of 3.21°C, adding heat to a climate already warmed by human activity. Europe had its second-warmest October, with especially high temperatures in Scandinavia and far-eastern Europe. Dry conditions and exceptionally low river flows persisted in parts of central and eastern Europe, while heavy rain and flooding affected several countries. Arctic and Antarctic sea ice were both about 9% below average; the Kara Sea recorded its lowest October extent, and Antarctic extent ranked second-lowest in the satellite record.