High oil prices have led to a dip in global carbon emissions

Global fossil-fuel carbon emissions are estimated to have fallen 0.4 percent in 2026, reversing growth of 1.2 percent the previous year. The decline is unusual because energy demand continued to rise; it was not a broad demand collapse like the one during the pandemic. Oil emissions dropped 1.9 percent, natural-gas emissions fell 0.3 percent, while coal emissions rose 0.6 percent. Electric vehicles, solar, and wind met nearly 70 percent of the growth in energy demand, but EV adoption explains only about one-fifth of the oil-emissions decline. Researchers attribute most of that decline to high oil prices resulting from the war in Iran.

The Global Carbon Project analysis argues that the dip should not be mistaken for a lasting emissions peak. From 2019 to 2025, 59 countries reduced emissions while their economies grew, and expanding clean technologies substantially restrained global growth: without the increase in EVs and renewable power, emissions would have risen about 1.9 percent annually rather than 0.8 percent. Still, projections based on expected economic growth suggest emissions would keep increasing through 2028, absent the oil-price shock. Clean energy is slowing the rise, but has not yet offset it fully. Sustained acceleration in deploying clean technologies could bring a durable peak and decline within a few years.