War may be coming. Are we psychologically ready?

The piece examines growing official warnings that Britain and parts of Europe should prepare for severe disruption or conflict, driven by renewed concern about Russia. Government work to update contingency planning, including an old "war book", accompanies public advice to stockpile food and water. Military leaders describe the current moment as unusually dangerous, but experts stress the likely threats are asymmetric - cyberattacks, sabotage of undersea cables and infrastructure - rather than conventional tank invasions. After decades of post‑Cold War drawdown, many Western publics and elites suffer a "crisis of disbelief" about security risks; analysts point to cuts in defence spending, energy dependence on Russia and a failure to candidly prepare citizens. Psychologists say societies pass through stages from psychological readiness to contemplation of war to actual engagement, and most Western countries remain in the contemplation phase.

By contrast, several Nordic and Baltic nations have rebuilt civic resilience and mass preparedness. Sweden has reinstated partial conscription, maintained a large reserve, and identified civilian specialists for rapid activation; Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania host allied forces to deter aggression; Finland’s history of hard fighting has produced extensive civil‑military readiness. These examples underline the policy debate: whether boosting defence budgets and encouraging citizen engagement will deter aggression or demand painful national trade‑offs in other areas of public life.