Memory chip stocks plunged this week as investors reacted to two main worries: a Chinese competitor and a far‑out oversupply forecast. SK Hynix fell about 26%, Samsung roughly 22% and Micron near 11% over five days after CXMT announced a server memory product with a new architecture that could raise storage density. That announcement revived concerns about Chinese market share, while an opinion piece in a South Korean paper - citing Professor Hwang and Ahn Ki‑hyun of the Korea Semiconductor Industry Association - warned of a “flood of new supply” in 2029 that could turn the market into a “red ocean.” Some market voices, including Elon Musk, amplified the China narrative, but several analysts questioned whether CXMT can scale the design or achieve acceptable yields, and one analyst said it’s unlikely to change the global supply‑demand balance.
Capacity expansion and timing shape the longer view: factories take three to five years to come online, so many expect shortages to persist until around 2028 even as companies build out. Counterpoint Research projects DRAM prices could fall about 23% in 2028 versus 2027 yet remain roughly 230% above 2025 levels. Industry participants point to multi‑year long‑term agreements with price bands that should blunt historic boom‑and‑bust swings, suggesting any down cycle may be shallower than in prior memory cycles and leaving investors to decide whether a structural change or a typical cyclical correction is unfolding.
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