Texas data center boom could erase decades of progress on air quality

Texas’ exploding data center industry could wipe out two decades of air-quality gains unless power choices change, according to modeling by energy researchers. With at least 288 projects proposed and potential demand estimates totaling roughly 439 gigawatts, emissions outcomes depend on whether servers tap the grid and renewables or deploy on-site natural-gas generation. In modeled scenarios, statewide nitrogen-oxide emissions rise as little as 35% by 2031 under a cleaner “net zero” grid-plus-renewables pathway but jump dramatically under combustion-heavy options - with some scenarios showing many-fold increases. Volatile organic compounds could exceed 2002 levels by about 32% and particulate matter would climb to concentrations not seen since the mid-2000s, amplifying risks of asthma, chronic lung disease and cardiovascular problems. On-site gas engines emit roughly four times the NOx of equivalent grid-supplied power.

The drivers are straightforward: data centers need continuous, power-hungry electricity and intensive cooling; long waits to connect to the grid have pushed developers toward faster, cheaper on-site gas plants. Regulators have paused new grid hookups while auditors review demand, but researchers insist the trajectory remains policy-dependent. Choosing grid connections paired with wind and solar, enforcing industrial emissions standards, requiring disclosure of power sources and adopting cleaner cooling and generation technologies can prevent the worst public-health outcomes.