Technology as a Search Problem

Technological progress is framed as a search through an immense space of possible designs. A technology combines natural phenomena in particular ways, and inventors must discover which arrangements work for a given purpose. The scale of the challenge is illustrated by estimates that even combining 272 known natural regularities yields more possibilities than there are atoms in the observable universe; allowing different ways to arrange and apply those regularities expands the space further. Information makes this search manageable: each discovery about what works or fails narrows the possibilities. The Wright brothers’ success is presented as an example of inventors gathering useful information efficiently, allowing them to identify a workable airplane design sooner than competitors.

To study this process, the author proposes PTOP, a model of “Phenomena Triggered by Objects with Properties.” Objects have properties, and placing suitable objects in the right arrangement automatically triggers phenomena that alter or create objects. A lightbulb, for example, coordinates electrical heating, incandescence, and transparency, while a vacuum prevents oxygen from damaging the filament. The model is intended to represent technologies broadly enough for simulation. Its simplest version contains ten object types, each with an adjustable size, and four phenomena that must be triggered in sequence: each adds a property needed for the next. The goal is to produce an object with a final desired property, providing a compact way to examine how inventors might find successful designs among many possibilities.