SpaceX's giant rocket may leave NASA in the dust

SpaceX’s planned orbital test of Starship marks a push toward a rocket designed for Mars missions and the company’s expanding businesses, including larger Starlink satellites and possibly space-based data centers. But the shift could put NASA in a bind: SpaceX says it wants to move scarce engineering and production resources from Falcon 9 to Starship, eventually winding down Falcon. Falcon 9 carries the Dragon capsule, currently the only American vehicle able to transport astronauts to and from the International Space Station. NASA has contracted for three more Dragon missions, enough to continue flights through 2028 if they occur at six-month intervals; the station is scheduled to retire in 2030.

SpaceX’s incentives have changed since NASA contracts helped keep the company afloat in 2008. Through September, the company reported about $2.1 billion in launch revenue, compared with $12.8 billion from Starlink and $10.9 billion from its growing AI business. Analysts say crew capsules are costly to develop and NASA is nearly their only customer, making astronaut transport a small part of SpaceX’s business. A Quilty Space analysis estimates Falcon’s retirement could leave the commercial market short roughly 150 launches by 2030, while the Space Force says it expects other providers to fill gaps. Boeing’s Starliner might offer NASA another crew option, but its troubled first astronaut mission stretched from eight days to nine months, and its next crewed flight is planned for 2028.