Despite Iran's Attacks, Gulf Oil Exports Exceed Prewar Levels

Commenters argued over Kpler’s claim that Gulf exports now exceed prewar levels. A_D_E_P_T called the claim "complete BS," accusing Kpler of double-counting ship-to-ship (STS) transfers and misreading overland pipeline capacity, and estimated bypass pipelines can only handle about 6.5-8.5 mb/d. Ajedi32 defended Kpler as a commercial data broker with no incentive to lie and asked whether other overland shipments might explain the gap. gumby and Guid_NewGuid expressed skepticism about the headline figures while noting Kpler’s industry presence and pointing to paywalled corroboration attempts (Vortexa, Marisks). yorwba cited a Kpler post saying 16.5 mb/d left the region excluding Iran, and Ajedi32 suggested Maritime Executive may have mistakenly added pipeline exports twice.

Commenters also focused on consequences and motivations. comrade1234 highlighted sharply higher tanker insurance and danger pay, jerrythegerbil said exports are flowing but not to previous destinations, and sleepyguy warned strategic reserves and diesel stocks are being drawn down. Several accused data actors of political bias: sorushn alleged Kpler and groups like FDD promote narratives to increase pressure on Iran, and another commenter questioned the analyst’s politics. grim_io quipped he’d wait for a shipping YouTuber to confirm. The split is between those accepting Kpler’s data and those who see methodological errors or political distortion.