China plans a manned lunar landing before 2030

China has publicly outlined its most detailed schedule yet for sending astronauts to the Moon before 2030, a goal that could put it ahead of the United States in returning humans to the lunar surface. The approach uses separate launches for the crew spacecraft and lunar lander, which would meet and dock in lunar orbit - a method similar to Apollo’s, but necessary because China lacks a rocket as powerful as Saturn V. The planned steps are an uncrewed Long March 10A and Mengzhou spacecraft test in low Earth orbit in early 2027; a 2028 Long March 10 test of the Lanyue lander, including landing and liftoff; an uncrewed lunar-orbit docking test in 2029; and then a crewed landing before 2030. The plan currently skips a crewed lunar flyby or orbit mission.

China’s program is difficult for outsiders to assess, but recent progress includes a 2025 test of a full-scale Lanyue mock-up simulating lunar landing and ascent, and the Mengzhou spacecraft’s arrival at its launch site for the planned 2027 test. NASA’s stated landing target is 2028, but uncertainty about the development of its commercial landers could push the US mission to 2030 or later. The competition has prompted changes to NASA’s Artemis plans, while both countries are also pursuing longer-term lunar capabilities, including ambitions to establish a presence near the Moon’s South Pole and build a base.