NASA's Swift space telescope predicted to crash back to Earth tomorrow

NASA’s Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory, a 1.5-tonne space telescope launched in 2004, is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere on November 4, 2026, after 22 years in orbit. Swift studied high-energy gamma-ray bursts and other cosmic explosions, including supernovas, stellar collisions and stars torn apart by black holes; it detected at least 1,400 supernovas. Its orbit gradually decayed, accelerated by increased solar activity. NASA’s attempt to raise it back into orbit failed when a rescue satellite could not orient itself, and Swift was shut down after reaching 275 kilometres above Earth. With no propulsion or ability to steer its descent, it is now travelling at about eight kilometres per second.

The timing and location remain uncertain: two forecasts place re-entry at 4:37am or 8:11pm AEDT on November 4, each with a margin of several hours. Its possible path spans latitudes 21 degrees north to south, crossing oceans and parts of northern Australia, Africa, India, Southeast Asia, and the Americas; the ocean is the likeliest destination. Most of the telescope should burn up, though dense tungsten components or mirror pieces may reach the ground. Swift’s broad gamma-ray, visible, ultraviolet and X-ray capabilities will leave a gap in observations of exploding stars that no single future mission is expected to fill. Its fate also illustrates the eventual uncontrolled return of aging spacecraft, including Hubble, whose re-entry is forecast for 2033 or 2034.