Acceleration of clean energy needed for global CO2 emissions to peak and decline

Global fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions grew by an average of 0.8% a year from 2019 to 2025, despite rapid expansion of renewable power and electric vehicles. Emissions rose 1.2% in 2025, but are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026, largely because conflict-related energy disruption and higher prices are expected to reduce oil use. Coal emissions are still projected to increase. The transition is spreading: 59 countries with growing economies emitted less in 2025 than in 2019, and emissions growth has slowed across regions. China, responsible for 32% of global emissions, is projected to cut emissions by 0.9% in 2026, bringing them near 2023 levels.

The analysis estimates how clean technologies, economic growth and other changes affect emissions. Solar and wind avoided an estimated 4.1 gigatonnes of CO₂ in 2025, while electric vehicles avoided 0.19 gigatonnes; together, these technologies offset much of the emissions increase driven by rising demand. Without these avoided emissions, global emissions would have grown faster. Yet current deployment is not enough to ensure a lasting global peak: electric vehicles still make up a small share of the vehicle fleet, and demand growth continues to push emissions upward. Under the assessed outlook, clean technologies offset about 64-79% of demand-driven emissions growth through 2028. Faster deployment of renewables and electric vehicles is therefore needed to secure a peak followed by sustained decline, rather than relying on a temporary fall caused by energy-market shocks.