Researchers Qinjian Jin and Bing Pu analyze global surface temperature records through 2025 and identify a statistically significant doubling of the warming rate: 0.40°C per decade during 2011-2025 versus 0.20°C per decade over 1971-2025. Using multiple observational datasets (HadCRUT, NOAA, Berkeley Earth, GISTEMP) and linear extrapolation of the recent accelerated rate, they project a breach of the 1.5°C Paris threshold by 2028, nearly a decade earlier than many previous estimates that placed exceedance in the early 2030s.
Regional diagnostics attribute the acceleration mainly to intensified warming across the East Asia-North Pacific sector, mid-latitude Eurasia, and the South Atlantic-Antarctic region. A 26-model CMIP ensemble mean reproduces only a 0.29°C per decade increase and fails to capture the observed doubling, indicating current models may underestimate near-term warming risk. The study combines trend analysis, regional fingerprinting, and model-observation comparison to conclude that the window to limit warming to 1.5°C is substantially narrower, underscoring an urgent need for rapid and substantial greenhouse-gas emissions reductions.
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