A powerful El Niño has intensified to levels scientists call unprecedented, with Australia's Bureau of Meteorology reporting average weekly sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific at record highs and daily September readings surpassing those of the 2015 event. Parts of the tropical Pacific have recorded surface temperatures above 30°C, alongside exceptional subsurface warmth and record SST anomalies. Forecasters are using a Relative Ocean El Niño Index (RONI) to strip out long-term human-driven ocean warming; even on that adjusted metric the event now exceeds the strength seen in December 2015. The warmth is also expanding beyond the traditional El Niño monitoring region, spreading across much of the Pacific and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Those ocean changes are already altering global weather patterns and amplifying heat released into the atmosphere, pushing 2026 toward being one of the warmest years on record and sustaining elevated temperatures into 2027. Historical parallels - 1997-98 and 2015-16 - show super El Niños trigger drought, wildfires, severe floods and food-security crises in vulnerable regions; tropical cyclone activity tends to be suppressed in the Atlantic and enhanced in parts of the Pacific, a pattern observed this year. Global agencies forecast a December peak for this event, with scientists warning continued disruptions to rainfall, agriculture and disaster risk as the El Niño progresses.
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