A Brain Teaser of an Obituary

Steve Selvin, a biostatistician whose name became attached to the Monty Hall Problem, died at 85 in Oakland on Sept. 30 from complications of dementia. The puzzle asks whether a contestant should keep an initial choice among three doors or switch after a host who knows the prizes opens another door to reveal a goat. Switching wins two-thirds of the time: the first choice has only a one-in-three chance of being right, while the host’s informed reveal concentrates the remaining two-thirds probability on the other unopened door. Selvin explained the problem in letters to The American Statistician in 1975, though he regarded the work as a minor footnote to his career.

Born in San Francisco and raised in Berkeley, Selvin studied mathematics at the University of California, Riverside, earned a doctorate in biostatistics at Berkeley, and joined its faculty after working at a New York State health institute. He later taught at Johns Hopkins and wrote roughly 250 papers on biostatistics and epidemiology, as well as 10 books. The puzzle became widely known after columnist Marilyn vos Savant presented the solution in 1990, provoking thousands of challenges, including objections from mathematicians; simulations supported her answer. Selvin’s role received little attention until NPR’s “Car Talk” featured the puzzle in 1997 and shared his original explanation. He is survived by his wife, daughter and two grandsons.