Will major-party U.S. presidential candidate deploy AI clone to talk to voters?

A prediction market question asks whether a major-party U.S. presidential nominee will deploy or explicitly authorize an AI-powered digital replica of themselves that can engage in real-time, unscripted conversations with voters before November 7, 2028. The market presently prices the probability at about 30% and is managed and resolved by Manifold Markets. The prompt frames the event as a binary outcome: either a qualifying deployment occurs and is verifiable, in which case the market resolves YES, or no qualifying deployment occurs by the stated deadline, in which case it resolves NO.

The specification lists precise requirements and exclusions: the system must use the candidate’s likeness, voice, or both; generate substantive answers dynamically in response to voter questions; be publicly accessible rather than limited to internal testing; and be explicitly authorized by the candidate or official campaign. Verification must come through credible reporting or public demonstrations. Excluded are AI-generated ads or prerecorded speeches, ordinary campaign chatbots that do not present themselves as the candidate, unauthorized deepfakes or parodies, and tools used solely for internal research or fundraising. The market may resolve immediately upon independent verification of a qualifying deployment. Related markets on AI’s role in the 2028 race appear alongside this question.