Why Canada is preparing for a (long shot) US invasion

Canada has been running war games for the once-unthinkable scenario of a US invasion, a contingency framed by recent rhetoric and policy from the Trump administration - tariffs, talk of Canada as a "51st state" and provocative actions elsewhere - that Canadian leaders say must be treated as low-probability but plausible risks. Polling showed over 30% of Canadians thought an invasion possible after the US captured Nicolás Maduro, and officials describe this planning as basic risk management. Military experts stress the deep defence ties between the two countries - NATO membership, NORAD cooperation and shared intelligence - which make a conventional US assault unlikely, with cyber operations or other discreet measures more plausible triggers.

Canadian modelling and planning outline what a conflict could look like: initial strategic positions could be overwhelmed quickly, forcing Canadian forces into guerrilla-style resistance while appealing to allies such as France and Britain. Officials have suggested major military expansion, including up to hundreds of thousands of lightly trained reservists, to close preparedness gaps. Analysts note operational and moral obstacles within US ranks that would complicate any invasion, and argue that an attack would likely aim at resource acquisition and political decapitation rather than prolonged occupation, underscoring how shifting geopolitics are driving Canada to rehearse even remote contingencies.