A project gathers 826 Hacker News comments from 2016-2026 that set a threshold for believing in AI, then turns each into a claim people can judge as achieved, uncertain, or not achieved. Nearly 9,700 people cast more than 100,000 votes. The exercise captures how quickly expectations shift: abilities that once sounded transformative can become ordinary after only a few days of using newer models. The author argues that looking back at past predictions helps counter that recency effect and shows how demands for proof can move as systems improve.
Using a two-thirds “yes” vote as the threshold for “clearly happened,” 112 claims met it, mostly about writing and understanding text or code; many were made before ChatGPT’s 2022 release. Examples include generating working code from specifications, solving programming problems, finding bugs, and handling algebra or categorization. Turing-test claims illustrate moving goalposts: a simple version receives strong approval, while tests requiring prolonged, live, or highly adversarial interaction are less accepted. Seventy-eight claims were contested, especially those about verifying truth, expressing uncertainty, generating genuinely new theories, and replacing experienced software engineers. The results distinguish practical capabilities that voters consider established from broader claims about reliable autonomy, general intelligence, and human-level expertise.
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A Hacker News poster asks which practical AI skills individuals can learn online to benefit economically from LLMs and agents. They want specific, hands-on recommendations suited to someone with a moderately technical background, without requiring a degree. (news.ycombinator.com)
Former OpenAI researcher Will Depue claims hidden initialization patterns in six Chinese open-weight AI models match Nvidia Blackwell hardware, including systems restricted from export to China. He says the matches were reproduced on real chips and independently checked by researchers, though the claims are based on his forensic analysis. (twitter.com)
Antithesis built a system that beats NetHack on nearly 80% of game seeds within five minutes, across character builds. Successful runs take a median of under two minutes, advancing the company’s goal of creating smarter fuzzers and autonomous systems. (antithesis.com)
OpenCyclone is a free, open-source Android agent that uses your existing apps to carry out tasks through a hidden screen. It asks for approval before actions like sending messages and lets users connect their own AI models. (opencyclone.vercel.app)
Sam Bankman-Fried’s $500 million investment gave Alameda nearly 14% of Anthropic, a stake that would be worth about $37 billion at the AI company’s expected $1.5 trillion IPO valuation. The stake was sold in bankruptcy to repay FTX customers and creditors after Bankman-Fried’s businesses collapsed. (ft.com)
llama.cpp and ggml have reached v1.0, establishing stable public C APIs and clear versioning rules for breaking changes. The release strengthens the foundation for running local, multimodal AI across a wide range of hardware. (huggingface.co)
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