The coming week’s US data will test whether the labor market remains stable enough for the Federal Reserve to keep raising interest rates to contain inflation. October payroll growth is forecast to more than double to 65,000, with unemployment holding at 4.2%. Job openings may have edged higher, while jobless claims are expected to stay near multidecade lows. Together, the figures could indicate a “low-hire, low-fire” market: slowing and accumulating job losses, but no wave of layoffs. Factory activity is expected to remain strong, AI-related imports may widen the trade deficit, and productivity is forecast to rise 2.6% in the third quarter. Canada also releases employment data after losing 68,300 jobs in September; its budget is expected to use higher oil revenues to encourage investment and improve affordability amid strained US trade relations.
Central-bank decisions and inflation readings dominate the international calendar. Australia is widely expected to raise rates again, as are the UK and Sweden, while Malaysia, Norway, Poland and Mexico are forecast to hold. Brazil’s election-driven market turmoil has shifted expectations toward a rate hold rather than another cut. In Europe, euro-area inflation, wage data and major-country factory figures will help assess price and growth trends; Turkey’s inflation is expected to slow. Asian releases include South Korean exports, regional factory surveys and GDP figures for Hong Kong and Indonesia. New Zealand reports jobs and wages before its election. Latin American inflation and activity data will shape policy outlooks, including possible tightening in Peru and higher inflation concerns in Chile and Colombia.
Summary generated by AI from the linked article. hn.today is not affiliated with Hacker News or Y Combinator.