Trump's war in Iran driving shift from fossil fuels

The war in Iran has sharply raised oil and gas prices, strengthening the economic and security case for replacing imported fossil fuels with electricity from renewable sources. The shift was already under way despite opposition from US President Donald Trump, but fuel disruption is accelerating it, especially the adoption of electric vehicles. Experts point to solar and battery costs falling about 90 per cent since 2010, and to EVs approaching a quarter of new car sales in Australia; in September and October, battery-electric cars outsold petrol cars there. Sales are also surging in South-East Asia and Europe. Some fuel-importing countries are acting directly: Laos suspended imports of petrol and diesel vehicles, Vietnam abandoned plans for a major gas-fired power station, and South Korea is committing heavily to renewables.

The case extends beyond cars. Solar supplied about three-quarters of global electricity-demand growth last year, while the conflict’s disruption of gas exports has pushed some countries to invest in alternative power. A global electric-car fleet reportedly avoided around $20 billion in crude-oil costs in the war’s first six months; estimates also put this year’s oil and gas bill $1.2 trillion above pre-crisis levels. Yet the transition remains incomplete: EVs are only about 5 per cent of vehicles on the road, and coal, oil and gas still provide roughly 60 per cent of final energy worldwide. The argument is that clean technologies are increasingly competitive on cost, speed and energy security, making electrification less dependent on political support alone.