Thinking Will Become a Hobby

The author argues that advances in AI will displace most cognitive work because models are rapidly surpassing humans in perception, knowledge processing, reasoning, judgment, and autonomous action. Citing the leap from early, error-prone ChatGPT releases to internal models solving hundreds of open math problems, the piece identifies three concrete drivers: improving performance across tasks, falling costs as successive model generations and massive investment lower marginal expense, and ubiquitous availability - AI systems that run 24/7 and scale with planned data‑centre expansion. Declining average human information‑processing skills and demographic labour pressures make AI substitution financially and practically sensible, and regulatory pushback is unlikely to halt the transition.

The practical consequence, the author insists, is that thinking will shift from economic necessity to discretionary activity: cognitive labor will shrink and intellectual work will increasingly resemble hobbies once widespread tasks became mechanized (hunting, calligraphy, woodworking, horse riding). Preparing requires engaging with AI development, adapting skills, and building a purposeful life beyond paid thinking. The author frames this as a personal and societal challenge: to ride out a disruptive revolution, capitalize on AI’s advances, and transform thinking into a fulfilling component of life rather than the primary source of livelihood.