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They war-gamed dimming the Sun. It went worse than you think

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A war game called Exploring Geopolitical Tipping Points and Climate Cooling Strategies simulated how governments, NGOs, companies and military figures would respond as solar radiation modification - spraying aerosols or similar means to reflect sunlight - moved from niche science to a deployable capability. Participants met as a mock UN committee across three time steps (now, 2027, 2028) while private firms, startups and tech actors (including a real startup that raised $60 million and interest from high-profile space companies) advanced proposals. The simulation foregrounded the known physical trade-offs - a volcanic‑style cooling that can reduce global temperatures but creates regional drying and storm shifts, and requires continuous intervention to avoid rapid rebound - and tested how delivery, monitoring and liability would be managed in a world of uneven effects and imperfect data.

The exercise showed governance failures driven by distrust, secrecy and commercial incentives: rivals refused constraints they saw as favoring competitors, disinformation and tactical leaks derailed negotiations, and a staged intelligence find and a covert US-Saudi test escalated finger‑pointing. Scientists in the game were sidelined, and a front organization funded by fossil‑fuel interests undermined credible monitoring, fracturing consensus. Players never reached a deal. The clear takeaway is that without international institutions, transparent monitoring and rules to limit racing behavior - and to isolate bad‑faith commercial or industry actors - solar geoengineering risks becoming a geopolitically destabilizing arms race rather than a carefully governed climate tool.

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