The debate over AI’s effect on work focuses on whether it is eliminating jobs, but employment data show no broad collapse so far. Microsoft offered buyouts to roughly 60,000 employees, while accounting, legal, and financial industries added jobs in October; the U.S. economy gained 165,000 jobs and unemployment fell to 4.1%. These figures leave open whether companies are replacing workers, pausing hiring, or cutting costs to fund AI. The central criticism is that job counts miss a more immediate effect: employers can use the prospect of AI replacement to discourage workers from seeking raises.
Evidence suggests that fear may already be weakening workers’ bargaining power. A JPMorgan Asset Management strategist said workers feel threatened and lack the confidence to demand higher pay, a view echoed by a CNBC host. A Boston Federal Reserve study found that workers who feared AI-related job loss were less likely to believe they could negotiate higher wages. Meanwhile, wages rose 3.1% over the year, below the 3.7% inflation rate cited for September, reducing workers’ purchasing power. The danger, then, may be gradual wage stagnation and a hollowing out of the middle class rather than mass unemployment. Retirements could also mask job losses in headline employment figures.
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