The launch market is tough as satellite companies start building rockets

AST SpaceMobile, which is building large direct-to-cell satellites, says it will develop Blacklift, a medium-lift rocket capable of carrying 20 metric tons to low Earth orbit, and begin commercial launches in late 2028. The plan reflects mounting difficulty securing launch capacity: satellite operators with large constellations increasingly need to book rides years ahead, and companies unable to get suitable terms may decide to build rockets themselves. The announcement also signals that investors may be willing to fund new launch ventures as concern grows about a shortage of rocket capacity.

The proposed schedule conflicts with the industry’s record. SpaceX took 4.7 years to reach orbit with Falcon 9, despite years of prior work and a smaller initial payload capacity; among newer US medium- and heavy-lift programs, Vulcan took 8.7 years, and comparable development efforts generally span five to nine years. AST has contracted with Firefly for engines, technical support, and manufacturing rights, but those arrangements are expected to save only a year or two and cost $1.3 billion. The company says it still needs roughly 90 more BlueBird satellites, yet existing launch agreements reportedly cover more than 100 satellites through 2028. That raises doubts about whether Blacklift is necessary, especially given the likely multibillion-dollar expense and ambitious timetable.