UNEP's 2026 Emissions Gap Report concludes that limiting warming to 1.5°C without overshoot is no longer attainable within the coming decade, making exceedance of that threshold imminent. The immediate objective must shift to keeping warming under 2°C and then driving temperatures back toward 1.5°C by 2100 to reduce the risk of irreversible impacts on ice sheets, permafrost, ocean circulation and ecosystems. UNEP frames the shortfall as a leadership gap: countries must move far faster on mitigation, clean energy rollout, electrification, just transitions away from fossil fuels, stronger grids and storage, energy efficiency, methane cuts, and halting deforestation.
To stay below 2°C and enable a later return to 1.5°C, global greenhouse gas emissions need rapid cuts - about 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040 relative to 2025 - roughly a 6% reduction each year to 2035. Current government pledges would deliver only 5-8% by 2030 and 11-15% by 2035. Renewable capacity must roughly triple by 2035, and coal, oil and gas shares in energy supply must fall dramatically (about 55%, 15% and 5% by 2035; 75%, 30% and 35% by 2040). Large-scale carbon removal - an estimated 320 Gt CO2 this century via reforestation and engineered capture - is also required. While renewables and solar deployment have surged since 2015, progress on fossil fuels and deforestation remains insufficient.
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