Super El Niño bursts through temperature record months ahead of peak

A near-record El Niño has already pushed central Pacific sea-surface temperatures to 3.05°C above the 1991-2020 baseline, topping the 2015 high of 3.02°C months before the expected peak. The NOAA‑based metrics and the Nino3.4 (ONI) index are on the verge of new records, and an ensemble of 14 models averaged by climate scientist Zeke Hausfather projects a peak near 4.0°C in November-December - well into “super El Niño” territory (above 2°C). Paleoclimate evidence from corals and tree rings indicates this event is likely the strongest in a millennium. Scientists stress that this extreme Pacific warming is compounding human‑driven global heating and will almost certainly force 2027 to shatter global temperature records.

The unfolding El Niño is already reshaping weather worldwide and amplifying climate impacts: record fires and hazardous smoke in Indonesia, weakened Indian monsoon rains, droughts across Central America and the Caribbean that disrupt shipping via the Panama Canal and threaten crops, and intensified rains and floods in parts of South America and the Horn of Africa. Southern‑hemisphere summer is forecast to be hotter and drier, raising wildfire and drought risk in Australia and southern Africa; Pacific typhoons are likely to strengthen while Atlantic hurricanes are suppressed. Aid agencies warn of severe food insecurity and large economic losses, and the UN and global meteorological services have launched major mobilizations as scientists call for urgent climate action to limit increasingly dangerous compounding risks.