So You Think You Could Be an Electrician?

A common story presents trades work as an easy, “AI‑proof” path to six figures that outcompetes college, but the reality is more complicated. College completion continues to confer a substantial lifetime earnings premium, and most students pay far less than advertised tuition; trades wages have not broadly surged enough to erase that gap. Skilled trades carry significant physical risks and long‑term wear: on‑the‑job injuries, chronic pain and disability are common and salient deterrents. High‑paying union positions are also internally stratified and scarce, requiring testing, credentials, connections and selective hiring; many blue‑collar jobs pay far less and lack clear upward mobility. Trade schools vary widely and lack standardized performance metrics, so the pathway to a well‑paid trade job is neither simple nor universally accessible.

The prospect of advanced AI shifting jobs toward trades is uncertain, and innovation in physical work often bypasses manual dexterity rather than replicating it. Examples like pneumatic nailers and auto‑feed tools show how process changes reduce demand for manual skill; future technologies could similarly erode some trade tasks or reverse recent increases in cognitive skill needs. The takeaway is that choosing between college and a trade involves tradeoffs in earnings potential, risk, selection barriers and technological exposure, not a straightforward swap of one safer, higher‑paying option for another.