Show HN: 2026 Midterms Tracker blends polls and Kalshi/Poymarket odds

PressAudit’s 2026 Midterms Tracker is a live election dashboard that combines traditional polls with prediction-market prices from Kalshi and Poymarket to produce a unified rating for every competitive federal and gubernatorial race. It explicitly tracks Senate, House and governor control, highlights the biggest weekly swings, and assigns PressAudit ratings to each contest. The site lists every Senate seat up for election and an exhaustive directory of House districts by state, including noted special elections (for example, Florida and Ohio) and at-large or nonstandard entries, so users can jump directly to any race’s page for details.

The core substance is methodological: poll aggregates are blended with market-implied probabilities to create a single forecast signal and a short narrative of recent movement. That mix aims to capture both measured voter intention and trader-assessed event risk, producing actionable signals about which seats are trending toward flips or stabilization. The tracker is structured for people who want granular, race-by-race ratings and trend flags across hundreds of contests, making it useful for analysts, media, bettors, and campaign staff monitoring control of Congress and gubernatorial chambers.