Blanche Lincoln, who helped write Title VII of Dodd-Frank and warned in 2010 that “event contracts” on prediction markets could be used solely for gambling, is now a lobbyist for prediction-market firm Kalshi. Her firm has been paid about $480,000 since 2024 to press Congress and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for looser rules. As a senator she argued the CFTC should prohibit event contracts tied to sports because they served no commercial purpose; after joining Kalshi she initially told the Biden CFTC that sports lacked “significant economic consequences,” but once Kalshi began offering sports wagers in January 2025 she urged regulators to permit the same kinds of sports-event contracts she once sought to block.
Regulatory and legal conflict has followed. CFTC Rule 40.11 (2011) broadly barred event contracts tied to gaming, but the Trump-era CFTC stopped enforcing that approach and has allowed Kalshi and rivals to offer sports bets while asserting federal preemption over state gambling laws. That policy shift produced roughly 20 state lawsuits, split court rulings, and mounting opposition from gaming regulators and tribes; the Supreme Court may ultimately resolve preemption. Kalshi insists it operates under federal securities-style regulation, launched sports markets on Jan. 23, 2025, and has ties to figures such as Donald Trump Jr. and investor 1789 Capital, intensifying the political stakes.
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