Russia loses almost half a million lives in war on Ukraine

An analysis of leaked Russian statistical records estimates that at least 450,000 Russians had died because of the invasion of Ukraine by summer, with delayed death registrations likely raising the total to about 550,000 by early August. The records directly identify roughly 410,000 conflict-related deaths; additional likely military deaths and cases registered through court processes bring the estimate higher. The toll is concentrated around the Donetsk front: about 120,000 deaths were recorded in the district containing Avdiivka and Pokrovsk, and another 48,000 in neighbouring Bakhmut district. These battles alone have cost more Russian lives than the Soviet war in Afghanistan. Analysts say recruitment has not kept pace with losses, which reached tens of thousands a month during peak offensives in 2025; the data and compensation payments show no clear decline in casualties into October.

The losses fall increasingly on older men: the average age of those killed rose from 34 in the first year to 40 in 2025, and men aged 35 to 44 account for the largest group. Recruitment and deaths are also unevenly distributed, with poorer regions and ethnic minorities bearing heavy burdens; Zabaykalsky Krai recorded about 12,300 deaths and Bashkortostan 15,800. The records identify more than 4,000 probable foreign fighters, including recruits from Central Asia, Africa and Latin America. They also document broader health pressures: Russia recorded about 457,000 Covid deaths in 2021, followed by 85,000 deaths from HIV and Aids since then, including 14,000 in 2025.