Research Firm Calls Anthropic's IPO 'Unprecedented Test of Investor Gullibity'

Research firm New Constructs brands Anthropic’s planned IPO as an unprecedented test of investor gullibility, arguing the company is chasing a $2 trillion market cap despite fundamentals that justify roughly $150 billion. The report highlights leaked prospectus figures showing $4.6 billion in 2025 revenue and a $42 billion net loss, noting Anthropic would need profits roughly double Nvidia’s trailing-year net income (north of $190 billion) to make a $2 trillion valuation sensible. New Constructs cites rapid growth in open-source AI models that undercut closed-model pricing power, contends Anthropic lacks a viable profit model, and criticizes the company’s existential-risk rhetoric as an additional red flag. The firm also argues the IPO’s primary purpose appears to be liquidity for early backers rather than creating public-market value.

David Trainer, New Constructs’ founder, frames the listing as a historic market risk and points to widely reported - but not yet S-1-filed - claims from Anthropic that its annualized revenue run-rate rose to $65 billion and that it could hit $100 billion by end of 2026. Trainer’s shop invokes past IPO warnings it issued (WeWork, Allbirds) alongside misses (DoorDash) to underscore its skeptical stance. The analysis centers on Anthropic’s mounting operating losses, competitive headwinds from open-source alternatives, and aggressive valuation targets as reasons investors should approach the offering with caution.