The EU remains exposed to international fossil-fuel shocks because gas-fired plants often set wholesale electricity prices, even when gas supplies only part of generation. Under the market’s marginal-pricing system, the most expensive plant needed to meet demand determines the price paid to all generators. Analysis of the first 16 weeks of 2026 finds that gas prices shaped electricity prices in 66% of assessed hours in Italy and 63% in Poland, compared with just 9% in Spain. Spain’s greater renewable output helped keep its average wholesale price at EUR 43/MWh. Renewables generated 44% of EU electricity during the period, nearly twice their 2010 share.
Counterfactual estimates put the cost of early-2026 gas-price volatility to the EU at EUR 13 billion, while renewable deployment since 2010 saved an estimated EUR 29 billion. The observed average wholesale price was EUR 98/MWh; it would have been about EUR 144/MWh if the energy mix had remained at 2010 levels. Looking to 2030, the analysis projects that renewables could rise to 68% of generation and bring the average price to EUR 71/MWh. If renewable expansion stalls and gas dependence persists, prices could instead reach EUR 160/MWh. Capturing these benefits requires policies and systems that keep pace with a changing power mix, including improvements to grids, storage, interconnections, demand response, efficiency and electrification.
Summary generated by AI from the linked article. hn.today is not affiliated with Hacker News or Y Combinator.
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![How to Lie With Statistics (1954) [pdf]](https://hntoday.pixelshot.io/screenshots/20261105/a419b293013c4c01_tn.jpeg)
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