People Vote for Anti-Immigration Parties Because They Don't Like Immigration

The central argument is that support for anti-immigration parties should not be explained away when voters say immigration matters to them. After the AfD came first in Saxony-Anhalt, some commentators pointed to election data showing stronger results in areas with fewer foreign residents and argued that voters’ real concerns were inequality, austerity, or national identity. The essay says this pattern can reflect where different groups live: educated people, who are generally more supportive of immigration, cluster in cities. Longitudinal surveys also suggest that moving to a city does not itself make someone more pro-immigration. Moreover, the chart compared immigrant population levels, not changes. From 2015 to 2025, the foreign-national share doubled in Saxony-Anhalt, from about 4 to 8 percent, while rising from 12 to 16 percent in North Rhine-Westphalia. Equal increases can feel different when one represents a doubling, and sudden local changes may provoke opposition, especially when immigration is framed as a threat.

Voters may also care about immigration’s effects on the country as a whole, regardless of whether many immigrants live nearby. An exit poll found that 96 percent of AfD voters in Saxony-Anhalt valued the party’s stronger commitment to limiting arrivals of foreigners and refugees. The author argues that these preferences should be taken seriously, while allowing that voters may object to how governments manage immigration rather than immigration in every form. Treating distant voters’ views as illegitimate, the essay warns, resembles dismissing climate concerns because someone has not personally experienced a flood. Anyone seeking support for different policies must address voters’ dissatisfaction directly.