No signs of AI payoff outside the tech sector

Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok argues that, despite heavy investment and enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, measurable business gains remain concentrated in major technology companies. Data comparing the “Mag 7” with the other 493 S&P 500 firms show revenue per worker and profit margins rising among the largest tech companies, but remaining broadly flat elsewhere. The analysis also finds no clear evidence that AI has lifted economy-wide productivity growth. Meanwhile, AI-related spending is concentrated in a small number of firms, including venture-backed companies, and token costs are increasing without comparable returns across mainstream businesses.

The central question is whether companies outside tech can use cheaper, increasingly capable AI to raise revenue and margins. Slok cautions that deploying AI in business involves more than automating calculations: effective decisions require contextual judgment, and outcomes depend on human and organizational factors such as accountability, trust, culture, ethics, fairness, and reputational risk. These qualities are difficult for models to understand, and the technology’s benefits may therefore be harder to realize than falling costs suggest. Until AI spending spreads beyond a narrow set of firms and produces visible improvements to financial results, its broader economic impact is likely to remain limited. The decisive test, the analysis concludes, is whether the rest of the S&P 500 - not just its biggest technology firms - can turn AI adoption into stronger growth and profitability.