The EU’s enlargement commissioner, Marta Kos, has proposed a 15-year probationary regime for any new member state aimed at preventing democratic backsliding and the rise of leaders who would weaponize EU institutions. During this probation period a candidate could face quicker, lower-threshold sanctions than under the existing article 7 mechanism - including suspension of voting rights or access to EU funds - if judged to breach core democratic norms or the principle of sincere cooperation. The safeguard is explicitly time-limited to avoid creating permanent “first- and second-class” members, and is pitched as a practical response to cases where article 7 has been rendered ineffective by mutual vetoes among backsliding states.
The proposal comes as enlargement momentum grows, with Montenegro, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine identified as frontrunners and talks due to open on large clusters of EU law for Ukraine and Moldova. Kos frames the measure as strategic, designed both to reassure skeptical current members and to blunt Russian and Chinese influence in the western Balkans and eastern neighbourhood. Practical hurdles remain: accession requires unanimous approval, public scepticism in some states, contentious issues such as Ukrainian farm subsidies, and institutional questions about vetoes and commissioner representation in a potential enlarged Union.
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