Kremlin intends to accustom NATO to a baseline level of airspace violations

The message argues that Moscow is deliberately normalizing a baseline of Russian military activity and airspace violations to erode NATO’s sensitivity to such actions and create tactical surprise for future escalations, including direct drone strikes on NATO targets. It draws a pointed historical analogy to Egypt’s pre-1973 Yom Kippur War exercises, which habituated Israeli forces until an actual invasion was misread as routine, while noting the comparison is imperfect and that Russia is not conducting a rapid border buildup. It also insists Russia is operating within a war framework while European states largely remain in a peace framework, and clarifies that a full-scale Russia-NATO war is not inevitable or imminent.

The core warning is practical: NATO must avoid treating Russian drone incursions and aggressive flight paths as routine or unimportant, because lowering the political and military threshold for response or dulling public urgency hands strategic advantage to Moscow - an outcome the message says Moscow has already partially achieved. Public reactions included calls for tougher deterrence, with examples cited such as Turkey’s 2015 shootdown of a Russian jet as a model of decisive response.