Just say no to Anthropic's IPO

Gary Marcus argues that investors should avoid Anthropic’s planned IPO, which reportedly seeks a valuation of up to $1.4 trillion. He considers that price unjustified for a company that, he says, has not been profitable apart from a possibly anomalous, subsidized quarter and faces nearly $900 billion in future commitments. The company’s amended filing, as described in the text, acknowledges that costs and losses are expected to rise and that revenue growth is unlikely to continue at its previous pace. Marcus presents those disclosures as signs that the scale of Anthropic’s obligations could make the business financially precarious.

The valuation, in his view, rests heavily on forecasts made during the “tokenmaxxing” boom, when Anthropic’s revenue appeared to be growing at an extraordinary rate. That momentum has weakened: revenue growth reportedly fell from 147% in the second quarter to 47% in the third. Marcus attributes the slowdown to fading demand from token-heavy usage and competition from Chinese companies offering capable alternatives. He points to recent growth data as evidence that Anthropic’s trajectory has lost speed, undermining projections that might support a trillion-dollar valuation. The central warning is that investors should not treat past rapid growth or optimistic forecasts as proof that the company can meet its enormous commitments and justify its proposed market value.