Is the Music Business Collapsing?

The music business is not collapsing uniformly: Ted Gioia argues that major, corporate entertainment companies are faltering while independent creators and open platforms continue to grow. Universal Music’s share price has fallen about 29% in 2026 and sits below its 2021 listing price, prompting talk of taking the company private. Spotify has also lost value despite raising subscription prices, while Netflix and other major streamers are cutting jobs, consolidating services, or struggling to attract subscribers and advertisers. In contrast, YouTube, TikTok, Bandcamp, and live music are thriving, often without meaningful involvement from the major labels.

Gioia attributes the labels’ decline to seven strategic failures: neglecting the development of new artists; spending heavily on older catalogs whose value will fade; making deals with streaming services that favor passive listening and weaken artist recognition; failing to build a shared streaming service with musicians; lacking a coherent approach to AI; letting lawyers and accountants prioritize short-term returns; and losing a sense of creative purpose. Together, he says, these choices have turned labels into intellectual-property managers rather than music businesses, while giving technology companies greater control and leaving both labels and artists with less leverage. He argues that recovery remains possible, but would demand sweeping changes to strategy and culture - changes he does not expect soon. In the meantime, he predicts more financial distress and private-equity interest.