Iran's threat to cut undersea cables in Strait of Hormuz poses a threat to Gulf

A confrontation between Iran and the US has extended beyond surface naval moves into threats against the region’s undersea communications infrastructure. Subsea cables running through the Strait of Hormuz and across the Persian Gulf carry more than 95% of international data traffic and underpin financial systems, government communications and the cloud and AI ambitions of Gulf States. Major tech firms such as Google, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft are expanding subsea connectivity to support data-centre and AI growth, while Gulf countries are investing hundreds of billions to diversify their economies. Key cable systems at risk include the Fibre in Gulf, the Falcon Network, AAE1 and Gulf Bridge International, linking Gulf states to India, Africa and Europe and funnelling traffic through the Hormuz choke point.

The Persian Gulf’s shallow seabed - average depth about 50 metres, maximum under 100 metres - makes these cables vulnerable to divers, commonplace remotely operated vehicles and autonomous underwater vehicles. Iran operates mine‑clearance ROVs, has an experienced offshore workforce and the diving capabilities to access the seabed, and the region has already seen infrastructure projects put on hold for safety reasons. A limited, targeted cut to cables would produce severe regional and global disruption to trade, communications and AI development, and the credible threat of such operations functions as a strategic deterrent that can alter opponents’ calculations.