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Human-enhanced tsunami hazard in large lakes

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The study investigates how human land use can increase tsunami danger in lakes by sending extra sediment into steep, unstable deltas. In northern Italy’s Lake Iseo, deforestation, farming and pastoralism since Roman times tripled sediment delivery to the Oglio River Delta, building and oversteepening its underwater slopes. Geological records show that earthquakes in 1117 and 1222 triggered major collapses there. The first mobilized about 62 million cubic metres of sediment; the second, about 10 million. Sediment cores and seismic surveys identify the resulting deposits, while numerical simulations reconstruct the failures and their waves. Historical accounts and archaeological evidence support the reconstructions.

The modeled tsunamis reached maximum run-ups of roughly 50 metres in 1117 and 13 metres in 1222. After the first collapse, continued sediment input rapidly rebuilt the delta, helping set up another failure about a century later. Eight centuries of further erosion-driven accumulation have again left shoreline communities exposed to earthquake-triggered collapse. A global synthesis indicates that human-driven erosion has risen to its highest levels since the Industrial Era, adding sediment to lake deltas worldwide. The findings show that human activity can amplify both the likelihood and severity of lake tsunamis, and that hazard assessments should account for changing sediment supply as well as earthquakes.

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