A dashboard tracks how the February 2026 war involving the US and Israel and Iran has pushed global oil use above production by cutting tanker access through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea and by disrupting Russian exports and refineries. Roughly 20% of global oil flows have been affected, sending Brent to about $105-$106 (roughly +40% versus pre-crisis) while US gasoline and diesel averages rose to $4.33 (+54%) and $6.27 (+68%) respectively; European and Asian gas benchmarks jumped roughly 153% and 167%. Refining and distribution pressures widened diesel’s retail-minus-crude spread by about 80%, and frequent tanker attacks and port closures have tightened supplies regionally (Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz transit counts show major reductions).
Supply charts and a scenario model show inventories being drawn heavily: global commercial stocks are down roughly 400 million barrels year-to-date, coordinated releases totaled about 400 million barrels, and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by about 129 million barrels to 285.4 million (its lowest since 1982). The IEA estimates a full-year supply loss of about 5.7 million b/d and notes over 10 million b/d of Gulf production remained shut in August; demand responses cut consumption by ~2.5 million b/d but a Q3 shortfall near 1.8 million b/d persists. The model assigns 10% odds to a corridor-holds outcome (Brent $70-80, SPR withdrawals ~0.45M b/d), 40% to a standoff (Brent $95-125, withdrawals ~0.70M b/d), and 50% to a corridor-lapses outcome (Brent >$130, withdrawals ~1.35M b/d) that would spread shortages to multiple regions.
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