Half of UK wants to rejoin EU and backing it could drive up Labour vote

A large Messina Group poll of 11,461 people, weighted by 2016 referendum result and conducted 12-24 September, finds almost half (49%) favor rejoining the EU while 28.5% oppose it. Other preferred relationship options also scored strongly: cutting trade barriers with the EU (48.2%), a customs union (47.1%), single market or associate membership (around 45%), and keeping the current post-Brexit arrangement (42%). A plurality (25.9%) want reentry immediately, 22.9% within three years, 8.4% over a decade and 23% oppose closer ties entirely. The poll also shows a majority view Brexit as the wrong decision (52.4%) and a failure (54.9%), more people valuing trade with the EU than with the US or China, strong support for keeping the pound, and 53.4% backing continued membership of the ECHR.

The research suggests political upside for Labour: tested messages around closer EU ties lift Labour’s vote share by 4.3-7.4 points, with the biggest gain if the prime minister offered and campaigned for a referendum on rejoining. That finding underpins a push to renegotiate EU ties, championed by the leader, but cabinet ministers - many representing leave-voting seats - warn of reopening divisions, business uncertainty and potential gains for Reform and Nigel Farage. Downing Street is testing options with pollsters and thinktanks as internal debate continues over timing, terms and political risk.