Electrification efficiency: The world will need less energy after the transition

Electrification dramatically reduces final energy demand by eliminating large conversion inefficiencies: electrified end-uses deliver the same services with much less energy input. Using a transition model that replaces non-electrifiable uses with hydrogen, final energy demand falls from about 416 EJ today to roughly 247 EJ post-transition - a drop of around 40% - while electricity demand rises from 110 to 189 EJ. That estimate assumes no other efficiency improvements or economic growth and treats hydrogen production electricity (estimated ~72 EJ) as an upstream, non-duplicated quantity, meaning the modeled savings are conservative on both counts.

The sector breakdown shows where the savings come from: transport and buildings deliver the biggest reductions because cars, heat pumps and electrified rail and buses are far more efficient than combustion fuels. Electric cars convert ~80% of energy to motion versus ~20% for petrol, shrinking car and van energy use to about a quarter of today’s. Buildings shift nearly entirely to heat pumps (90% of space heating), electric water heating and cooking. Industry is harder to decarbonize: high‑temperature processes shift to hydrogen, steel increases electric-arc furnace use (≈25%→50%), and low-temperature processes adopt electric boilers and heat pumps. Moving away from fossil-fired power and adding insulation and other efficiency measures would shrink primary and final energy needs even more.