A new analysis by climate scientists projects that the current “super” El Niño will cause 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between September and February 2027, with elevated mortality expected to continue through June or July 2027. The estimate was produced by applying peer-reviewed, month-by-month relationships between temperature and excess mortality across 24,378 regions to El Niño temperature forecasts, using a 1996-2025 baseline. The hardest-hit countries are projected to be Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India and Brazil; the United States ranks in the top 20 with about 3,500 extra heat deaths. The El Niño has already surpassed previous temperature records for the phenomenon and has been described by researchers as exceptionally large.
Beyond direct heat fatalities, the event is expected to intensify droughts, wildfires and floods, aggravating food insecurity and water stress; the World Food Programme warned it could push roughly 50 million people into acute hunger. Researchers argue that targeted emergency measures - improved heat forecasting, cooling centers, increased medical staffing during hot spells and protections for outdoor workers - could save many lives this season. Scientists emphasize that this El Niño is effectively a preview of climate change’s trajectory, occurring on an already warmer baseline and underscoring the need to design and deploy long-term protective systems even as short-term responses are scaled up.
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