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Does anyone want to win the medium-lift race in the United States?

arstechnica.com5 points0 comments
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The piece examines a looming gap in U.S. medium-lift launch capacity and profiles the new domestic rockets racing to fill it. It argues that with the last new U.S. medium-lift vehicle introduced 13 years ago and SpaceX withdrawing Falcon 9 from the commercial market by 2028, satellite operators face real uncertainty for 2027-2030 launches. Larger rockets like Vulcan and New Glenn are expensive and already booked, so multiple startups are betting on mid‑sized vehicles and following SpaceX’s lesson of building engines and critical hardware in‑house to control cost and schedules.

Four contenders are profiled with specific technical progress and launch predictions. Stoke Space’s Nova targets full reusability (3 t reusable, 7 t expendable), full‑flow staged‑combustion engines, and an orbital reentry heat‑shielded upper stage; its second stage has shipped and a July 2027 debut is predicted. Relativity’s Terran R (advertised 33.5 t expendable, roughly 20 t reusable) has completed Aeon R engine acceptance and a second‑stage hot fire, with a September 2027 prediction. Rocket Lab’s Neutron (8.5-15 t) faces Archimedes engine and large carbon‑composite dome challenges, with a January 2028 target. The Firefly/Northrop Grumman Eclipse relies on Miranda engines but shows uncertain stage development and partnership friction, listed NET 2029.

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