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Comet SWAN26Q – The unconfirmed Scout object warrants monitoring, not concern

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Screenshot of Comet SWAN26Q – The unconfirmed Scout object warrants monitoring, not concern

SWAN26Q is an unconfirmed Near-Earth Object candidate currently on the Minor Planet Center's NEO Confirmation Page and triaged by NASA's Scout system, not yet entered into JPL SBDB/CAD or Sentry. Scout's latest run (2026-09-16) fits nine observations spanning a 743-day arc and returns a nominal distance of 15.567 lunar distances (~5.98 million km, 0.04 au) with a relative velocity of 56.70 km/s. Scout-derived parameters give H = 11.7 (diameter ≈ 12-27 km), a modeled Earth MOID of 0.04 au, a phaScore of 100 and an Astrophyzix Risk Index of 60/100 driven by size and MOID. Sampled orbit fits (300 Monte Carlo draws) cluster on an inclination near 109° (retrograde) while eccentricity lies at 0.997-1.000, effectively parabolic; none of the sampled orbits flag an Earth impact (0.0% impFlag).

The combination of near-parabolic eccentricity, high retrograde inclination and the SWAN-style name is far more characteristic of a long-period or first-time-inbound comet than a short-period asteroid, but the object remains unconfirmed. The dataset is thin because the object currently sits at a solar elongation of only 14°, limiting ground follow-up and leaving eccentricity poorly constrained even as inclination is tightly pinned. Scout’s PHA-class flag is an automated early-warning prioritization, not a confirmed hazard; continued astrometry once the object clears the Sun’s glare is required to produce a robust JPL solution and to either confirm or reclassify the object.

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