Nate Silver assesses whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez can capture the 2028 Democratic nomination, arguing that the left’s influence has grown since 2024 but that AOC faces meaningful structural and political hurdles. Early draft exercises and recent progressive wins (Zohran Mamdani, Abdul El-Sayed) show the left’s momentum and AOC’s political talent, yet the coming midterms will strongly shape perceptions of electability. AOC also confronts a strategic choice: run for president or challenge Chuck Schumer for his Senate seat in 2028, where she would likely be favored. Perceptions about female candidates’ electability persist among some Democratic voters, and those perceptions have previously influenced primary dynamics.
Silver highlights several technical obstacles in the Democratic nominating process: the party’s proportional delegate rules and a calendar that gives early weight to moderate-friendly states like South Carolina and Virginia tend to favor compromise candidates. Nevada and Michigan present better terrain for AOC, and her clear stance on AI could be an advantage as the issue rises. The left lane is relatively uncrowded with Sanders aging and Mamdani ineligible, but potential rivals like El-Sayed may not run. No single candidate looks dominant; Silver estimates individual win probabilities around 20-25 percent, concluding that AOC has both a high ceiling and a solid floor - provided she decides to run.
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Richard Scarry's depiction of socialism is criticized for making city life seem simple while ignoring underlying social problems. Mamdani argues that such portrayals can mask the complexities of social and economic inequalities. (currentaffairs.org)
The European Union has withdrawn its sponsorship from a disinformation event held in Lithuania. The decision comes amid concerns over the event's content and influence. (dw.com)
OpenAI's annualized revenues are reported to be $20 billion less than previously indicated. The discrepancy has raised questions about the company's financial disclosures. (ft.com)
David Revoy has updated his license to explicitly prohibit AI-generated derivations of his art, stories, and comics due to the difficulty in managing AI-inspired reproductions. He seeks to prevent AI from training on or creating derivative works based on his creative projects, which are licensed under Creative Commons. (davidrevoy.com)
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