China’s CO2 emissions fell 3.1% in the third quarter of 2026, the steepest quarterly drop since the 2022 Covid lockdowns. Emissions are estimated to be down 0.5% for the year to date, extending a pattern of flat or declining emissions that began in March 2024. Coal use fell 3% year on year and oil use 4%. The main forces were weaker coal-fired power generation, sharply lower transport fuel use, slower expansion of coal-based chemicals, and continued declines in steel and cement output as construction contracted. Wind, solar and nuclear generation rose by 110 terawatt hours - more than twice the increase in total electricity demand - helping coal power generation fall 3.3%. This happened even as China continued building coal plants, leaving them operating fewer hours and earning less.
Transport oil consumption dropped 9%, with electric vehicles reaching 67% of passenger-car sales and half of heavy-truck sales in September. Electricity use by EVs grew 53%, suggesting drivers are relying more on electric vehicles already on the road. Looking ahead, continued emissions declines depend on clean-power growth outpacing energy demand and on reducing grid bottlenecks that lead to wasted wind and solar electricity. Demand growth has slowed partly because of mild weather, but also because economic growth is weaker. With GDP growth still meeting official targets, pressure for additional stimulus may be limited; announced investment in power and transport networks could nevertheless support low-carbon infrastructure.
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