AI has produced a surge of modestly successful software projects rather than an explosion of blockbuster products. A comparison of installation and usage counts across about twenty marketplaces, plugin registries and modding platforms between 2022-24 and 2025-26 shows a clear uptick in small-to-medium hits: NVDA addons with more than 1,000 downloads doubled, HACS plugins with over 100 installs doubled, new Steam games with over 100 reviews rose by roughly 60%, and Obsidian plugins, browser extensions, Nexus mods and Blender add-ons show the same pattern. Some large platforms such as Google Play and WordPress did not follow this trend, but overall there is about 2x growth in modestly successful projects amid as much as a 10x rise in total projects, while massively successful non-AI products show no comparable growth.
Install counts were chosen to focus on software people actually use rather than AI-first tooling, and game mods and ports are highlighted as examples where AI is solving ordinary user needs. Voluntary disclosure of AI use is unreliable in hobbyist communities, so the timing and scale of the jump implicate AI as a primary driver even when authors hide its use. Large incumbent products remain relatively static because they are feature-saturated and technically constrained, while runaway hobbyist hits are rare either because breakout ideas are hard to find or because successful projects need years to scale. The research was conducted with AI assistance and the underlying dataset is available.
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