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AI Bubble Tracker

endtime-instruments.org11 points5 comments
Screenshot of AI Bubble Tracker

The AI Bubble Tracker is a live dashboard for assessing whether the boom in artificial intelligence is supported by real demand and sustainable finances, or is showing signs of a speculative bubble. It organizes indicators into seven areas: spending, supply, usage, adoption, prices, markets and credit, and public attention. Rather than relying on a single measure, it sets current AI investment alongside precedents such as the dot-com boom and tracks both the physical buildout and the businesses expected to pay for it.

Its indicators range from hyperscaler data-centre and chip spending, lab revenues, borrowing and depreciation assumptions to chip prices, data-centre vacancies, power demand and construction. Measures of actual activity include model usage, AI-assisted coding, paid business adoption, job listings and consumer use; pricing data tracks the cost of models and rented GPUs. Financial gauges cover stock valuations, debt, interest payments, leveraged funds and insider sales, while attention measures follow company filings, online discussion, research and consumer curiosity. The dashboard highlights potential warning signals - such as spending outrunning cash flow, rising inventories, or announcements exceeding construction - alongside evidence of demand, including usage and contracted cloud backlogs. It is designed to let readers compare these signals over time, not to reduce the bubble question to one headline statistic.

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